StudentShare
Contact Us
Sign In / Sign Up for FREE
Search
Go to advanced search...
Free

Theories to Global Warming - Assignment Example

Cite this document
Summary
"Theories to Global Warming" paper shows that there is solid evidence to suggest that the theory that asserts that there has been a rise of about 0.9°C in the average temperature of the earth over the last century, is right. The effects of Global warming are alarming and a genuine cause for concern.  …
Download full paper File format: .doc, available for editing
GRAB THE BEST PAPER91.3% of users find it useful
Theories to Global Warming
Read Text Preview

Extract of sample "Theories to Global Warming"

Chitra Ravichandran 24 May 2008 Global Warming Purpose There are 2 theories to Global warming Asserts that there has been a rise of about 0.9°C in the average temperature of the earth over the last century. 2) Argues that we are merely at the peak of a temperature wave and that the increase in temperature is not a cause for concern since it can only descend now onwards. The purpose of this report is to show that there is solid evidence to suggest that the first theory is right. Hence ,the effects of Global warming are alarming and a genuine cause for concern. Signs of Global warming : Impact on land Range of arable land expands south and north. Soil drier due to higher evaporation rates. Increased CO2 aids some plant growth. Habitats for some animals shrink. Range of insects likely to expand . [Spread of tropical diseases.] Impact on water Sea level rises due to melting ice caps, warming water. High water eats away at, or submerges, coastal land. Sea water contaminates some drinking water supplies. Water levels drop in some rivers, streams. [Intensifies damage from storms and droughts.] Impact on air Cloud cover increases Levels of the greenhouse gas methane may increase Hurricanes range farther north, south on warmer water. [Carbon dioxide in atmosphere doubles in the next century.](“Signs Of A Warming World”) Data description : Statistical data can be obtained from surveys, experiments or any series of measurements. In this case, we have used the 2 methods : 1.Survey 2.Series of measurements 1.Survey : 1.Do you agree that the average global temperature is going up? 2.Do you believe that the temperature of the earth has risen by about 1°C since 1850? 3.Do you think that the scientists who are talking about global warming as a glaring problem, are talking with valid evidence? 4.Do you think that human beings are responsible for this occurrence? 5.Do you think that there is an unnecessary hype about the whole issue of global warming? 6.Do you think that human beings will change their behavior to reduce the effects of this alarming phenomena? This was a simple questionnaire which a section of people in the age group 20-40 years were asked to answer. I took the sample size as 40 and incorporated random sampling. These are the findings of the questionnaire : Question No. No of people who said ‘Yes’ % of people agreeing 1 29 72.5 2 25 62.5 3 24 60 4 26 65 5 31 77.5 6 33 82.5 2.The second method involves the taking of “series of measurements” from CRU, UK. Time period : The values have been taken for the period 1960-2008. Type of sampling : “Sometimes it is cheaper to cluster the sample in some way e.g. by selecting respondents from certain areas only, or certain time-periods only. Cluster sampling is an example of two-stage sampling or multistage sampling: [in the first stage a sample of areas is chosen; in the second stage a sample of respondent within those areas is selected.]”(“Sampling (statistics)”) In 1850 the “Monthly mean central England temperature” is 9.10°C (T). (Monthly mean central England temperature (DEGREES C)) This data records the difference in temperature relative to the temperature as taken on 1850. This graph is a frequency histogram of the (T1-T) column in the above table. This shows that most of the values lie in the range 0.6-0.9.Later on in this project, we will be strengthening this theory by finding out the 95% confidence interval. Calculations : Based on our 2nd sample , We need to find a confidence interval for degree of confidence(1 – α) = 0.95.For this we have to calculate the following : 1) The mean is a way to describe the location of a distribution. It shows the average temperature difference between the particular year and the temperature in 1850. Calculation of mean(μ) = ∑( T1 – T) / N where N is the no. of years taken into consideration. In this case , N = 58. Mathematically , 58 μ = ∑( Ti – T) / N i=1 = (0.31 + 0.17 + 0 + 0.74 + ……+ 1.72 + 1.38)/58 = 0.602 Mean = 0.602 2) The variance is a way to capture its scale or degree of being spread out. Calculation of Variance (σ2) = ∑( T1 – μ)2 / N (It will not be N-1 as we are calculating the variance for a sample and not for an entire population). Mathematically , 58 σ2 = ∑( Ti – μ)2 / N i=1 = 20.04715/58 = 0.345015 3) The standard deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion of its values. Calculation of Standard deviation (σ) = √(Variance) σ = √0.345015 = 0.5874 4) The reliability of the mean as the estimate of μ is often measured by σX = σ / √N is called the standard error of the mean. Mathematically , σX = σ / √N = 0.5874 / √58 = 0.01013 5) Calculation of confidence interval for 1 – 0.05 = 0.95 degree of confidence : - zα/2 σ / √N < μ < + zα/2 σ / √N Now , P(-z ≤ Z ≤ z) = 1 – α = 0.95 α = 0.05 F(z) = P(Z ≤ z) = 1 – α/2 = 0.975 z = F-1(0.975) = 1.96 0.95 = P(-z ≤ Z ≤ z) = P(-1.96 ≤ ( - μ) σ / √N ≤ 1.96) = P( - 1.96 σ / √N ≤ μ ≤ + 1.96 σ / √N) = P(-1.96× 0.01013 ≤ μ ≤ + 1.96 × 0.01013) = P(-1.96× 0.01013 ≤ μ ≤ + 1.96 × 0.01013) = P( - 0.02 ≤ μ ≤ + 0.02) = 0.602 as it is the sample mean. Therefore , confidence interval is (0.602–0.02 , 0.602+0.02) Confidence interval = (0.582,0.622) Upper 95% confidence interval = 0.622 Lower 95% confidence interval = 0.582 The above interval shows that 95% of the (T1 – T) values fall in the range (0.582,0.622). Hence , we can conclude that the temperature in the last 50 years is certainly greater as compared to mid 1850s.This is a clear indication of a significant rise in temperature in this period. That is , recent temperatures are higher than those of the last century. Y(Temp) X Years This is a graph plotted with ‘year’ on the x-axis and ‘measured temperature’ corresponding to the year on the y-axis. It is very clear that taking into account even the last 58 years, the temperature of the earth has been rising steadily. Conclusion : Comparing statistical data obtained from the 2 methods, 1)The 1st survey method shows that there is still a section of people who are not aware about the factual figures regarding global warming and think that this is a much hyped subject and the issue is not a major cause for concern. 2)The 2nd method of obtaining statistical data(series of measurements) is in contradiction with the above observations. This asserts that there has been a rise of about 0.9°C in the average temperature of the earth over the last century. Indeed, the dynamics and dangers of global warming are alarming. Although the belief in, and concern about this subject is increasing, human beings need to further modify their behavior to nullify the effects of this frightening phenomena. Works Cited “Signs of A Warming World”. CNN.com. 27 November 1997. Cable News Network. 23 May 2008. . “Sampling (statistics)”. Wikipedia contributors. Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia. 214303295. 22 May 2008. 23 May 2008. “MONTHLY MEAN CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURE (DEGREES C)”. metoffice.gov.uk. 22 May 2008. Met Office. 23 May 2008. Read More
Cite this document
  • APA
  • MLA
  • CHICAGO
(Theories to Global Warming Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words, n.d.)
Theories to Global Warming Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words. https://studentshare.org/environmental-studies/1714211-you-can-choose-the-topic
(Theories to Global Warming Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 Words)
Theories to Global Warming Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 Words. https://studentshare.org/environmental-studies/1714211-you-can-choose-the-topic.
“Theories to Global Warming Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 Words”. https://studentshare.org/environmental-studies/1714211-you-can-choose-the-topic.
  • Cited: 0 times

CHECK THESE SAMPLES OF Theories to Global Warming

Global Warming and Climate Change

The essay "global warming and Climate Change" focuses on the critical analysis of the major issues concerning global warming and climate change.... Increasing average temperatures of the earth and oceans are referred to as global warming, it started at the beginning of the nineteenth century and it might continue for a very long time to come (Hansen 17).... Due to effects associated with climate change and global warming, there will be an average probable increase in the temperature ranging in the region of 1....
7 Pages (1750 words) Essay

Global Warming is Media Hyped Hysteria

The current essay would be comparing the two articles concerning the issue of global warming on the basis of three different literary styles.... hellip; The rhetorical analysis of the two articles: 'Greenhouse Gases Cause global warming' by Environmental Defense Fund and 'global warming is Media Hyped Hysteria' by American Senator, Inhofe is highly pertinent to the scholars primarily because the articles have talked about the same issue but have persuaded their audience in widely differing ways....
2 Pages (500 words) Essay

Denial or doubters of the environmental global warming

Some… people argue that the manmade activities are causing problems to the environment and the major culprits behind global warming phenomenon are human alone.... This paper briefly explains the biggest theory of denial or doubters of the environmental global warming Lord Crimson (n.... d) has cited the opinions of 19,000 scientists in order to argue against the established theories of global warming.... These scientists have established that the current theories about the responsibility of the human in global warming are in question....
4 Pages (1000 words) Essay

Generating Hypotheses and Building Theories

For instance, a researcher studying the concept of global warming may consider the analysis of all theories related to global warming including the AGW theory (Polkinghorne, 2005).... For instance, a researcher studying the cause of global warming may consider testing the Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory.... The rationale behind testing such a theory is to uncover whether the AGW theory best explains global warming.... In the paper “Generating Hypotheses and Building theories” the author explains data usage both in testing hypotheses and theories and in generating hypotheses and building theories....
2 Pages (500 words) Essay

The Main Causes of Global Warming

The effects of global warming have started to appear and they will intensify over the passage of time if the required measures are not taken in time.... The writer of this essay aims to identify and address the major factors that Caused the emergence of the issue of global warming.... hellip; global warming, as the name suggests, means an increase in the overall temperature of the atmosphere.... global warming has increased over the decades....
2 Pages (500 words) Essay

Global Warming: The Role of Politics

The current paper "global warming: The Role of Politics" is primarily purposed to overview in details the debate on global warming, its causes, and its solution is one of the issues that demonstrate the political influence on how people understand science.... Existing scientific evidence on global warming are diverse and points to significance of the phenomena and its effects on the environment and biodiversity.... Strict and urgent decisions towards managing global warming through its causes would therefore be expected from political leaders but this has not been the case....
5 Pages (1250 words) Essay

Differences in Global Warming Approaches

hellip; Issues erupt on the best ways to curb global warming, what really causes global warming among others unanswered questions.... global warming has been considered one of the most pinching environmental subjects of all time.... The issue of global warming reaches the common man's knowledge through various sources with varying views.... Scientific reports claim that the very origin of global warming was somewhere in mid-20th century....
3 Pages (750 words) Essay

Why is Public Otin Divided over Human-Induced Global Warming

The "Why is Public Otin Divided over Human-Induced global warming" paper figures out why there is still an eminent divide in public opinion with respect to the claim that global warming is a result of human activities.... nbsp;global warming is described as the rise in the temperature of the earth's atmosphere.... Ideally, the claims seem to be true if the current effects of global warming are something to go by.... The melting of ice in ice-covered lands, the changing climate, and the increase in global temperatures are just but some examples of the effects of global warming....
6 Pages (1500 words) Assignment
sponsored ads
We use cookies to create the best experience for you. Keep on browsing if you are OK with that, or find out how to manage cookies.
Contact Us